When plain people do vote, they overwhelmingly support Republican candidates, particularly in high-profile elections. A recent Washington Post study offers a fitting anecdote. Their analysis found that Stoltzfus, the most common Amish surname in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, is the surname with the most consistent Republican affiliation in the United States, for both men and women. This pattern extends to other Amish-associated names like Byler and Beiler, hinting at a deep-seated cultural affinity that persists even among those who may only have Amish ancestors.
Plain people’s Republican leaning aligns with the party’s messaging on human values, free markets, and less bureaucratic regulation, which often parallels plain people’s own positions. Historically, Amish have voted when they feel an existential issue is at stake, such as the Nixon-Kennedy race in 1960 or the Bush elections in 2000 and 2004 (Kopko 2007). Recent election cycles have seen an uptick in visibility of plain people politicking, notably progressive Amish. Political Action Committees (PACs) targeting this demographic—such as the Amish PAC, which is Amish-targeting, not Amish-operated—have made efforts to register additional plain voters in 2016, 2020, and 2022. Amish PAC has not published the exact numbers they’ve registered, but it likely maxes out at several hundred.
Yet, the 2020 election cycle has also witnessed some notable, if atypical, displays of Amish political involvement likely spearheaded by the Amish PAC. These included media attention on Amish attendance at Trump campaign rallies in Pennsylvania, buggies in a Trump parade in Ohio, and even a visit of four Amishmen to Trump’s White House December 2019—from the “New Order Tobe” (Fredericksburg, Ohio) and “Old Order-mainstream, Geauga type” (Carroll County, Ohio) groups. Notably, participants are from more lax churches as far as Amish church rules go.
Despite some conspicuous Amish politicking coming out of Ohio, Pennsylvania will most certainly remain the focus of voter registration recruitment efforts. Trump won Ohio in 2020 by a margin of 475,669 votes, while the state’s plain population—at 93,523—would have had an inconsequential impact, whether all adults voted or not. In 2024, Ohio is expected to again go Republican, even without plain people’s help.
But in Pennsylvania, the plain vote could conceivably swing elections, if not in 2024, in future races. Yes, their numbers are growing, but their impact on election outcomes is so far moderated by a deeply ingrained pattern of distancing from the government. As in recent presidential elections, some number will talk favorably about Trump and Republican causes. Others will push back, framing such talk as straying from the historic faith. The question is whether ideologies are gradually changing, as collective memories of persecution fades and plain people—including business leaders—feel more confident navigating the political realm. Additionally, the increased popularity of mail-in ballots could increase registrations. Mail-in ballots would address extra travel demands to get to polling stations—a demand especially felt by those who don’t drive motor vehicles—while making no extra demands on their long workdays. Further, it circumvents the need to show their face at a polling stations, which triggers a sense of self-enforcing shame due to the perceived moral ambiguity of voting. However, even with mail-in ballots, the very act of registering to vote may still strike plain registrants as signing their name to a blank check. “What else is the government signing me up for that they’re not telling me?”
Whatever 2024 holds, as presidential races remain close in states with large, growing plain populations—and as these communities show ongoing interest in politics—Republican strategists are likely to double their efforts to tap into this potential wellspring of conservative votes.
